Iran War 2026 (as of March 2, 2026, noon PT)

The United States and Israel launched a military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and leadership. The campaign is ongoing, with reports of its expansion and a potential duration of several weeks. President Trump said today that the campaign could last “four to five weeks,” but “we have the capability to go far longer than that.” He also stated that he will not rule out U.S. troops on the ground.

What should you be thinking about as a resiliency professional?

You can’t think about your professional life without first asking yourself what you need to do to be prepared at home (just as you would for a hurricane or earthquake). Prioritize your and your family’s safety by securing essential supplies (water, food, medicine, flashlights, batteries, pet food, and more), identifying safe locations or evacuation routes, and creating a family emergency plan. Focus on financial security, protecting key documents, staying informed through trusted sources, and deciding on a course of action regarding potential relocation. Discuss this with your family.

What are the Key Impacts on Businesses and Life?

Here are some things to consider when reviewing your continuity plans:

Loss of life and the overall destabilization of the world.
Prices for many things are going to rise, and in some cases, skyrocket.
Oil supplies will decline, and oil prices have/will rise.
European natural gas prices climbed roughly 28 percent as ship traffic, including vessels carrying crude and liquefied natural gas, was halted around the Strait of Hormuz, the vital trade route bordering Iran. This will impact the price of goods.
The volatility is forcing banks and hedge funds to rethink staffing in a region that has become a magnet for Western capital. Could that impact your continuity plans?
Stocks across Asia and Europe fell this morning, and S&P 500 futures are under pressure.
For every $10-per-barrel increase in the cost of oil, the price at the pump could rise by up to 30 cents a gallon. (Crude oil is raw petroleum extracted directly from underground reservoirs, varying widely in composition based on geographic source. Brent oil, in contrast, is a benchmark light sweet crude sourced from the North Sea, known for its consistent quality and global trading price.)
- Brent crude oil price – up 10–12% so far:
  - Feb 27, 2026: ~$72.48–$72.87 per barrel
  - Feb 28, 2026: No trading (Saturday)
  - March 1, 2026: ~$77.09–$78.36 per barrel (Spiked late in the day)
  - March 2, 2026: ~$78.00–$78.49 per barrel (Mid-day trading), dropped to $75 at the time of this writing.
Trade disruptions due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – causing goods to be diverted, making them more expensive and slower.
Travel: As of February 28, the US State Department advises U.S. citizens to follow the guidance in the latest security alerts issued by the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate. They may experience travel disruptions due to periodic airspace closures. The Department of State advises Americans worldwide to exercise increased caution.

What should you consider as a resiliency and crisis professional?

This is your opportunity to prepare for a possible disruption, assess your plans, teams, and readiness, and demonstrate the value that resiliency provides your organization every single day.

Time to Evaluate Your Program, Plans, and Readiness: Things To Consider

Crisis management & BCP Plans and Teams: Review your plans and touch base with teams and plan owners. Be thinking about activations and readiness. What if some people aren’t available? Are your plans solid enough to help those filling in do the job?
Physical and technology security: Heightened awareness and security are essential. Criminals use these disruptions as opportunities to attack, both physically and in cyberspace. Don’t be flat-footed; review plans and preparation now.
Energy Costs and Supply: A sharp rise in oil and gas prices is expected, with potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20% of global oil passes. A 50% spike in oil prices could severely impact global demand, while a 100% rise could trigger a recession. Check with suppliers as necessary to assess supplies.
Logistics and Supply Chain: Shipping lanes in the Gulf are facing disruptions, with insurers canceling coverage and freight premiums spiking, prompting vessel rerouting. Review your supply chain in detail NOW. Prepare and explore alternative options and vendors.
Sector-Specific Effects:
- Aviation: Gulf airspace closures are disrupting routes between Europe and Asia.
- Import/Export: Retailers and manufacturers face inventory shortages and increased shipping costs.
Inflationary Pressure: Rising energy costs are feeding into broader inflation, affecting operational costs for businesses globally.
Market Volatility: Stock markets have reacted negatively, with futures for major indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones) falling. Safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar are gaining, while equities are facing selling pressure.

Regional and Longer-Term Outlook

Regional Instability: The conflict could lead to prolonged instability, affecting operations in the Middle East, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
Long-term Effects: Damage to Iranian or regional infrastructure could result in lasting constraints on energy production.
What should you be planning for? Businesses are being advised to brace for continued volatility, potential resource stockpiling, and a shift in consumer confidence.

Resiliency Checklist

Review your plans based on the current status and a “worst-case” scenario.
Revise plans as necessary.
Work with colleagues in physical and information security to ensure we are all prepared.
Consider doing simple, short exercises to prepare for some of the likely impacts on your business.
Set up Google Alerts on areas you specifically want to monitor.
Conduct short exercises on areas of weakness and/or to assess readiness. Revise plans.
Test your emergency notification system to validate employee contact information.

Use this as an opportunity to assess your readiness. It is also an opportunity to demonstrate the value you and your department provide to your organization every day. Be ready for what could happen next.

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Regina Phelps is a recognized global leader in crisis management, exercise design, and pandemic planning. She designs crisis management teams and plans and processes for large organizations across five continents. She is also the author of four books on crisis management and exercise design, all available on Amazon.